Beware The “Special Case” : Confirmation Bias (1) Gil wants to lose weight.
He selects a particular diet and checks his progress on the scales every morning.
If he has lost weight, he pats himself on the back and considers the diet a success.
If he has gained weight, he writes it off as a normal fluctuation and forgets about it.
For months, he lives under the illusion that the diet is working, even though his weight remains constant.
Gil is a victim of the confirmation bias ― albeit a harmless form of it.
The confirmation bias is the mother of all misconcep– tions.
It is the tendency to interpret new information so that it becomes compatible with our existing theories, beliefs and convictions.
In other words, we filter out any new information that contradicts our existing views (‘disconfirming evidence’).
This is a dangerous practice.
‘Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored,’ said writer Aldous Huxley.
However, we do exactly that, as super–investor Warren Buffett knows: ‘What the human being is best at doing, is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.’ The confirmation bias is alive and well in the business world.
One example: an executive team decides on a new strategy.
The team enthusiastically celebrates any sign that the strategy is a success.
Everywhere the executives look, they see plenty of confirming evidence, while indications to the contrary remain unseen or are quickly dismissed as ‘exceptions’ or ‘special cases.’ They have become blind to disconfirming evidence.
What can you do?
If the word ‘exception’ crops up, prick up your ears.
Often it hides the presence of disconfirming evidence.
It pays to listen to Charles Darwin: from his youth, he set out systematically to fight the confirmation bias.
Whenever observations contra– dicted his theory, he took them very seriously and noted them down immediately.
He knew that the brain actively ‘forgets’ disconfirming evidence after a short time.
The more correct he judged his theory to be, the more actively he looked for contradictions.